Saturday, May 30, 2020

A few good investing websites


I honestly am trying to spend less time on "newsy" investing sites and focus more on fundamentals and thinking as we approach a "4th Turning" crisis period.  Alas, crisis periods are nearly impossible to "invest" in in the normal sense - extrapolation and prediction are nearly impossible because there are so many macro factors that are likely to get resolved in one big cataclysm; the outcome of which is largely dispositive as it is really unknowable.  Inflation or deflation? Empire or tributary dependency? Heavy industry, physical assets, or intellectual property?  Legal, economic, environmental, political systems - all up for grabs.

Few strategies work well and unlike the later states of the prior crisis period, securities are not dirt cheap.  The right strategy in 1937-1938 was to buy net nets, which were plentiful.  Today, they are hens teeth, so the downside of being wrong is much much larger.

Anyway, some things you might want to check out:

- The writings of famous investors on Austin Value Capital

- The ideas on Clark Street Value

- The smart guys at Oddball Stocks

- The "cousins" at NoNameStocks

- Dave Waters at OTCAdventures

Not saying these are ways to invest, but they are places to think about the discipline AND get some stuff to sift through.

Recognize that most of the investors at Austin Value Cap were born in a fortuitous period from 1916-1930.  Most of the great generation of post war investor-allocators were from this period, because you had your early career largely after the war and could accumulate significant assets cheaply from the 1940s to the mid sixties (Graham style investing) then buy compounders with strong yields in the 1970s and then sit back and let the twin tailwinds of lower taxes and lower yields drive the portfolio value into the stratosphere.  Not saying these aren't smart people, just that Ben Graham, who was quite a bit older, did much less well because he was born at the wrong time to have the strategy truly work for him; he died before the really big revaluation could work it's magic.

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